www.Paradise-Tree.org "Let's grow paradise together."

Why do we need Biofuels?

The simple answer is that the world's supply of crude oil is running out. Our whole society is based upon crude oil and, when it is gone, that society will surely collapse - unless action is taken NOW to prevent that happening.

If you want to know exactly what life might be like after the impending "Oil-Crunch", then take a good long look at Cuba, where the whole population has been depending on small-scale agriculture since the same thing was forced upon them by Russia in the 1970s.

But, I thought we had hundreds of years worth of oil still to go?

Wrong. Scientists and engineers have known for decades how much oil there is left. They can even tell us how much oil remains undiscovered, even if that seems hard to believe. It is all done by statistics, which can predict how much is left based on the rate at which it is currently being discovered. As time passes by and more discoveries are made, the predictions gradually become more and more accurate. My observation is that if you hear anyone in the world telling you that oil will last for hundreds of years, that person probably works for an oil company and has a vested interest in wanting you to believe that is his job is secure forever.

Ok, so just how much oil is left?

According to figures released by BP around mid-2009, the remaining "proven" world crude reserves stand at approximately 1.258 trillion barrels, which includes the Tar-Sands of Alberta, Canada. If we divide that number by the current worldwide demand of about 85 million barrels per day (BPD), that gives us a MAXIMUM timescale of about 40 years, assuming that all the reserves can be successfully extracted.

No problem. That means oil will run out 40 years from now, right?

Wrong. Every qualified Mining Engineer (of which I am one, incidentally) will tell you that it is NEVER possible to extract all the reserves in any given deposit - especially oil reserves. People tend to think that oil is just sitting there in large underground pools, awaiting someone to stick in a big pipe and suck it all out. That's not quite the way it works. In practice, the oil tends to reside in very small pockets, so that the host rock mass is more like a sponge than a bucket. Imagine sticking a straw into a sponge full of water and sucking ..... You get a good mouthful initially, but it gets more and more difficult the more you suck out. It reaches a stage where you can't suck any more out and you give up, but the sponge is still quite heavy and water-logged. It's a similar case with an oil well and sooner or later, production ceases before the well is fully depleted.

Furthermore, the figures quoted by BP do not take into account any increase in worldwide demand in the future. Did you know that worldwide oil consumption has been increasing at the rate of about 7% per year throughout almost the entire period since it was first discovered? So what? Well, that figure of 7% is phenomenal growth! It essentially means that oil consumption has doubled every decade since it was discovered. One important consequence of Exponential Growth such as this, is that when a quantity repeatedly doubles, it follows that the TOTAL quantity used in the next doubling cycle exceeds the entire quantity previously used. So, for example, the oil used in the 1950s alone was MORE than all the oil ever used up until 1950. The same thing happened in the 1960s - Oil consumption doubled again, so that total consumption for that decade was more than the previous total, including the consumption of the 1950s!

It should be very clear that with a growth in worldwide production / consumption of 7% and a consequential doubling time of 10 years, it will only take 10 years to use up the remaining 50% of reserves, once the half-way point has been reached. For a much clearer explanation of all of this, please watch the following series of videos, by Dr. Albert Bartlett:-

'Arithmetic, Population and Energy': Video (Part 1 of 8)

Well, are we at the half-way point? Have we only got 10 years of oil left?

The half-way point in terms of available oil reserves is commonly referred to as "Peak-Oil". The term was first used by Dr. M King Hubbert in the 1950s when he first made predictions about the end of the oil-era. A few sceptics think he was wrong, since he predicted "Peak-Oil" at around the year 2000. The thing is that he would have been spot-on with his prediction, if it hadn't been for the oil crisis of the 1970s, which led to a drop in consumption, mainly by Americans opting for smaller cars. This effectively prolonged the time-frame. But Hubbert's predictions were fundamentally correct. In any case, we no longer have to rely on his predictions alone. Have a look at this set of curves:-

Quoting directly from the above graph: "95% of the predictions sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010."

I personally believe that the actual peak-oil date was around mid-2008. It was probably no accident either that this event coincided with a rapid climb in the price of oil to $145.6 per barrel (Brent Crude). My own feeling is that the price would be much higher than that figure already, if the Credit Crunch had not happened. Indeed, it has been said that the two events are connected.

Incidentally, it is estimated by some experts that, in order to merely maintain worldwide oil supply at the current level for just the next 10 years, the oil companies need to discover new reserves totalling the equivalent of FOUR TIMES the volume that ever existed in Saudi Arabia. You don’t need to have a degree in geology to realise that this is simply not going to happen. This amount of oil will never be discovered because, basically, it is not there!

Big deal! - 3 Billion Barrels equates to about 35 days worth of worldwide supply at today's level of demand. But hang on! .... the same article says that only about 30% is extracted. Ok, better make that 10 days worth of supply!

Or, to put it another way, companies like BP need to be making announcements like this approximately every 10 days! Can you see what the problem is yet?

Holy shit! So we only have about 10 years?

No. That is when the oil will run out totally!

So, how long have we got?

Based on the figures above, many scientists, engineers and academics now claim that, sometime within the next 2 to 5 years, there will be a worldwide energy crisis of almost unimaginable proportions .... and the consequences for humanity will be extremely dire.

MORE NEWS

Less than one day after the launch of this website, this article is also from the BBC:-

Total issues oil shortage warning (21/09/09)